Homeowners in Chicago, Washington, D.C., Orlando, Tampa-St. Petersburg and Atlanta are more likely to move over the next 90 days than in any other major market, according to a new ATTOM Data Solutions’ Pre-Mover Housing Index.
Based on mortgage application data, the index could anticipate a wave of commission checks for agents in those markets — not to mention a bonanza for ancillary businesses tied to the moving process, said Daren Blomquist, a senior vice president with the California-based real estate data analytics firm.
“A higher pre-mover index bodes well for local real estate agents, home improvement stores, moving companies and others that benefit from the halo effect of a home sale,” Blomquist said in a statement released on Thursday.
On the other hand, scarce inventory or weak demand — or some blend of both — likely characterize markets with low index scores — “which is not optimal for businesses that rely on the home sale halo effect,” Blomquist said.
Using data collected from purchase loan applications, the Pre-Mover Housing Index is based on the ratio of homes with a “pre-mover” indicator to total single family homes and condos in a given market, compared to the national average.
An index reading above 100 is higher than the national average and reflects an above-average ratio of homes that will likely be sold in the next 90 days in a given market. An index score below 100 suggests the opposite.
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Chicago, Washington, D.C., Orlando, Tampa-St. Petersburg and Atlanta lead the pack of the 36 metro areas with at least 500,000 single-family homes and condos that are covered by the index.
When expanding the sample to 131 metro areas, Wilmington, North Carolina (206); Colorado Springs, Colorado (178); and Manchester-Nashua, New Hampshire (172) claim the top spots, followed by Chicago (168) and Washington, D.C. (166).
Markets lagging the most, according to the index, are Cleveland, Boston and Pittsburgh.
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