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Mission Chronicle Newsletter Nov 3, 2025

11/03/2025

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“What do you do if you’re driving in the fog? You slow down,” stated Fed Chair Powell after the Fedcut rates by a quarter-point. The market was primed for the rate cut but began shifting on commentsfrom the chair that strongly indicated that the Fed may pause at its December meeting before makinganother cut. With limited data to guide its decisions, it may be prudent to wait and see how the labormarket and inflation are faring. Private and state data are not pointing to any drastic issues with theemployment market, but we are likely to miss the second month of employment data. Last week, wealso failed to receive the first estimate for the third quarter’s GDP. Fortunately, existing data modelsindicate growth between 2% and 4%. While some pundits are sporting these numbers as strongevidence that all is well, it’s worth remembering that these models are missing data inputs.   This week will be heavily reliant on the ISM data. If these two highly respected surveys indicateimprovement, we could see mortgage rates trending upward as we await the end of the shutdown.     Mortgage Rates and Economic Snapshot
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