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Mission Chronicle Newsletter Oct 13, 2025

10/13/2025

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Rates began moving downward last week as the government shutdown closed off federal economicdata, prompting the market to rely on private data points for decision-making. To be sure, a week ortwo of missed data will not be economically catastrophic, but it could mean sharper-than-normalmovements in the market as data is released after the shutdown ends. Fortunately, the CPI data will bereleased as it’s needed for the annual Social Security adjustment. However, it will be late. The datadrama could also impact whether the Fed cuts rates again or not. While the market is pricing in a highprobability, the recent meeting minutes revealed a greater reluctance to trim rates than most expertsexpected. The CPI data is now scheduled to be released a few days before the Fed meeting. Trump’s threat of more tariffs on China helped rates drop, but the threat seemed to be pulled backsomewhat over the weekend. If trade war rhetoric escalates again, we may see rates drop in responseto concerns over a potential negative economic impact. Other data could push rates back upward. Mortgage Rates and Economic Snapshot
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