Mortgage rates found a bottom at 4.00 percent, and the 10-year T-note’s return to base at 2.30 percent feels decisive. Pay no attention to 0.7 percent GDP in the first quarter; the report filled with distortions and following an outsize four quarter. The 2-year T-note in the last year — the Fed-predictor. In March 2s began to price-in the next Fed hike, then overtaken by uncertainty. Next week’s data load, especially the job stats are likely to trigger the next round of Fed speeches hinting at next action. If the economy is really slowing, we’ll see it in next week’s blast of new reports on March activity. So long as the Fed intends to increase the cost of money, it will be very hard for long-term rates to break lower. This week’s dominant news has been President Trump’s tax plan. Trump has at last asked Congress to do something which it enjoys — giving away money which it does not have — but this time it isn’t going to turn out that way. The 10-year T-not…
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