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The week in financial markets: Sorting noise from substance

03/24/2018

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Events are coming so fast in bunches and connected and separate that it’s hard to sort noise and style from substance. The Fed met this week, concluding with Chair Powell’s first press conference and new projections for the cost of money. In any other month or year or decade the Fed news would have dominated all else. This time, just an “uh-huh” from markets and back to the other jaw-dropping shows in progress. The Fed took the Fed funds rate up 0.25 percent to 1.75 percent and confirmed its intention to be 2.25 percent or higher at year’s end and 3.00 percent or more by the end of next year. The bond and mortgage markets had priced-in the hike, and part of the next one, and ignored the Fed’s further intentions. The 10-year T-note fell in yield at Wednesday meeting-end. Chair Powell is not an economist and not afflicted by their prideful pretense to predict the future via model-building. In different words than Yellen, Powell told us that the Fed will rely on incom…

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