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Mission Chronicle Newsletter Sept 22, 2025

09/22/2025

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As expected, the Federal Reserve trimmed interest rates by a quarter point. Mortgage rates spent most of the week moving downward, but are unlikely to fall any further until economic data supports the forecasts from the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). While the median prediction from the SEP is two more rate cuts this year, the Fed members are scattered between zero and three. While the cut was framed as assistance to a soggy labor market, the employment picture is not that dire. Inflation concerns still dominate many economists’ worries, and many believe that we have not yet seen the full impact of the trade and tariff reset. Retail Sales did move higher than expected, revealing that consumers are still spending, and Industrial Production also came in slightly higher.   Much of this week will see the market digesting the Fed meeting and trying to sort out whether more rate cuts are coming. Friday’s release of PCE Price data may shift rates. If it’s at expectations or higher, rates may move upward, while a below-expected reading could push rates downward. Mortgage Rates and Economic Snapshot
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