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June data consensus: Good news everywhere?

07/08/2017

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Damn. Good news everywhere. The bond market likes bad news and must have it for rates to go lower. News, news everywhere, and nary a scary drop. Long-term rates have snapped up from the post-election low only two weeks ago. The U.S. 10-year Treasury from 2.14 percent to 2.39 percent, mortgages following. Add 1.80 percent to the 10-year and get close to the rate for 30-fixed mortgages with no points — up from 3.875 percent to 4.125 percent. There is no sign of upward explosion, but if global economic trends continue, we are likely to rise to 4.50 percent by year-end. The US 10-year T-note, pushed up by global yields and the Fed’s plans. Not a flicker of war-fear, flight-to-quality rally after the NK missile launch. U.S. data this week were quite strong, all flash reports from June: an outsize gain in new jobs, prior months revised up; and the twin ISM indices pink-happy above forecasts, manufacturing up to 57.8, service-sector 57.4. Still no ramp upward in wages or inflatio…

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