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Most recent market news
Tuesday, February 6
CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI Forecast
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 6.6 percent in December 2017 compared with December 2016 and increased month over month by 0.5 percent in December 2017 compared with November 2017 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.3 percent on a year-over-year basis from December 2017 to December 2018, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to decrease by 0.4 percent from December 2017 to January 2018.
“The number of homes for sale has remained very low,” said CoreLogic chief economist Dr. Frank Nothaft. “Job growth lowered the unemployment rate to 4.1 percent by year’s end, the lowest level in 17 years,” he said in the report.
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“Rising income and consumer confidence has increased the number of prospective homebuyers. The net result of rising demand and limited for-sale inventory is a continued appreciation in home prices.”
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI)
The MCAI increased 2.1 percent to 182.9 in January. A decline in the MCAI indicates that lending standards are tightening, while increases in the index are indicative of loosening credit. The index was benchmarked to 100 in March 2012.
The Conventional MCAI rose by more (up 3.6 percent) than the Government MCAI (up 0.9 percent). The component indices of the Conventional MCAI both increased from the month prior, with the Jumbo MCAI gaining more (up 6.1 percent) than the Conforming MCAI (up 1.1 percent).
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“Credit availability increased across the board in January, more than reversing December declines in almost all component indices,” said Lynn Fisher, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics.
“Jumbo credit programs rebounded most strongly and reached a new series high, driven by an increase in the number of programs with reduced documentation requirements. In government lending programs, credit availability remains somewhat lower than the rest of 2017.”
News from earlier this week
Monday, February 5
Black Knight’s Mortgage Monitor
Though mortgage delinquencies ended 2017 at a 23-month high (up 164K from 2016 year-end), in non-hurricane-impacted areas – representing 90 percent of the total market – delinquency rates declined
The national delinquency rate in non-hurricane-affected areas was 11 percent below long-term norms
The total number of mortgages either past due or in foreclosure fell by more than 140K in non-hurricane-affected areas, pushing the non-current rate in these areas down to 10 percent below long-term norms
A total of 649K foreclosure starts were initiated in 2017, the fewest of any year since 2000
2017 saw the fewest first-time foreclosure starts on record, which were both 15 percent below 2016 levels and roughly half their pre-crisis annual average
While foreclosure inventory is on track to normalize in 2018, more than 125K active foreclosures remain in which no payment has been made in more than two years; 63K have not had a payment in five years or more
The 232K total foreclosure sales (completions) in 2017 marked the lowest single-year total since the turn of the century
December First Look release
Hurricane impact update
“Hurricanes Harvey and Irma significantly impacted 2017 mortgage performance metrics,” said Black Knight Data & Analytics Executive Vice President Ben Graboske. “Overall, there were approximately 164,000 more past-due loans at the end of 2017 than the year before, pushing the national delinquency rate to a 23-month high.
“When Black Knight isolated non-hurricane-impacted areas – which represent 90 percent of the entire active U.S. mortgage universe – we see the national delinquency rate actually fell to 11 percent below long-term norms. Likewise, the 90-day delinquency rate was also up six percent from last year, with roughly a third more seriously delinquent loans than we’d expect in a healthy market.
“Excluding the hurricane impact, though, we see that there were 84,000 fewer loans 90 or more days past due than last year; a 14 percent reduction. The national non-current rate – which tracks all loans 30 or more days past due or in active foreclosure – edged down slightly from 2016, even including the effects of the storms.
“Isolating those non-hurricane areas, though, we see that the total number of past-due mortgages fell by more than 140,000 – which brought the non-current rate in these areas down 10 percent below long-term norms.”
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