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Should the Fed preempt a potentially overheating job market?

08/05/2017

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This week’s news is mostly a tale of misinformation. But first, some reliable data. July payrolls released this morning grew by 209,000, enough to stop cold a decline in mortgage and other long-term rates and roughly double the monthly gain, which would stabilize the unemployment rate at today’s 4.3 percent — either stop hiring, or add more people to the work force, or the rate of unemployment will continue to fall, presumably below zero, and with who-knows-what consequences for wages and inflation. The payroll data also showed average hourly earnings increasing just as they have been, 2.5 percent year-over-year. The US 10-year T-note in the last year. For a while this week it looked as though it might make a run at the 2.15percent bottom in June, but the payroll numbers ended that. The twin ISM surveys of purchasing managers have been excellent predictors of the overall economy. The July figures: manufacturing cooled slightly from red-hot, to 56.3 from 57.8, and the …

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