Long-term rates found bottom late this week. The rebound is not bad — mortgages still close to 4.00 percent — but risks have tilted upward. The financial/economic world is odd enough today without unusual political intrusion, thus making it more important than ever to deconstruct events and pressures into separate components. From the broadest perspective, it is true that national economies are synchronizing into a global expansion, which is exceedingly rare and tends to end badly in an episode of overheating and either inflation or bubble-bursting. That is not what this one looks like. This one is new and different. Several forces have combined for a couple of decades to produce an episode of synchrony. Supply chains twenty-five years ago became so entangled that traditional measures of national trade became meaningless. The Apple iPhone concept is U.S. intellectual property exported to meet physical components manufactured and assembled all over Asia and re-exported here….
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