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Thursday, September 28
Across the 15 metros covered by the Demand Index, there were 13.9 percent fewer homes for sale in August than there were a year prior, and there was a 2.7 percent decline in new listings. The seasonally adjusted number of buyers requesting home tours and writing offers remained flat from July to August, decreasing 0.8 percent and increasing 0.1 percent respectively. Oakland had the largest Demand Index increase in August, up 29 percent from July and 43 percent year over year. Inventory was down 30 percent year over year and new listings fell 5.3 percent. Denver saw the largest decrease in homebuyer activity in August, with its Demand Index down 54.2 percent from July. Inventory there was down 9.3 percent and new listings fell 8.8 percent year over year.
“High consumer confidence and low interest rates have powered homebuyer demand, but too-low inventory has constrained home sales all year,” said Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. “The Federal Reserve is now setting the stage for a slow, steady increase in mortgage rates in October by beginning to sell its mortgage portfolio. Fall buyers are likely to face slightly higher financing costs in addition to strong price growth.”
“Denver usually sees a drop in homebuyer demand in August, but this year was slower than we’ve seen in recent years,” said Redfin Denver agent Martin Mata. “Homebuyer fatigue has set in and buyers are frustrated because they’re priced out of homes they could afford a couple years ago. We’ve actually had other agents tell us that their clients will back out if there are multiple offers on a listing because people are so fed up with bidding wars.”
Increase in condo co-op and investor shares in Q2 2017 make loans appear riskier. Purchase mortgage loans are still high quality in terms of credit risk. In Q2 2017, the Housing Credit Index (HCI) increased to 117, up 20 points from Q2 2016, but the level of credit risk in Q2 2017 is still within a range of the HCI for the period of 2001 to 2003, a timeframe that is considered to be a normal baseline for credit risk. The investor share of home-purchase loans increased from 3.6 percent in Q2 2016 to 4.2 percent in Q2 2017.
Corelogic Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said, “Mortgage risk for new originations increased modestly in the second quarter of 2017, but much of this rise was due to a small shift in the mix of loan types to more investor and condominium loans, which have slightly higher risk attributes. Despite the somewhat higher risk of new origination loans, purchase mortgage underwriting remains relatively clean with an average credit score of 745 and low delinquency risk.”News from earlier this week
Tuesday, September 26home loan is currently 2.94 percent, and the rate for a 5-1 adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) is 3.04 percent.
“Mortgage rates rose last week after the Federal Reserve announced plans to end the remnants of its recession-era policies and released a stronger-than-anticipated forecast for the U.S. economy over the next year, but fell back early this week on geopolitical news surrounding North Korea,” said Erin Lantz, vice president of mortgages at Zillow. “Geopolitical news is likely to continue driving financial markets this week, and rates could rise slightly if North Korea fears ease. Financial markets are also likely to pay attention to a speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen today and inflation and income data due Friday.”
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