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What’s behind the drop in long-term Treasury rates?

04/17/2017

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Last week was what the military calls “target rich.”The first: Long-term rates on Wednesday broke out of the bottom of a range, 2.30-2.60 percent, which has held since November.The 10-year T-note dropped to 2.23 percent, taking low-fee mortgages almost to 4.00 percent.The 10-year T-note at the end of last week; the sharp break below 2.30% at the tag end of Wednesday trading. Markets were closed for Good Friday.There is plenty of discussion about why the move has been down, instead of out the top, but the catalyst is perfectly clear: Donald Trump’s extraordinary 70-minute WSJ interview on Wednesday.The 10-year in the last year. Note huge double-top-and-shoulders formation, and break of resistance at 2.30%, which in normal times would presage a significant drop. Not now: the Fed is coming. Note further: the 10s to 2s spread narrowed below 1.00%.Sometimes we struggle to understand cause and effect in markets, but the rate improvement came instantly upon the…

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