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Why you can expect mortgage rates to creep toward 5% this summer

03/16/2017

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First, may as well get the embarrassing part over: the Fed raised its rate today, and mortgage rates fell.“Fell” is a bit of an overstatement, the decline no more than a fractional point — a large loan, fine credit, 80 percent, 30-year fixed still sits between 4.375 percent and 4.50 percent.Nevertheless, any drop is the biggest story of the day, as nearly everyone had expected a breakout in the underlying, all-powerful 10-year treasury note (T-note).The 10-year had, for two weeks, been flirting with the crucial 2.60 percent level, and during Chair Yellen’s press conference it has slid to 2.50 percent.Note that 2.60 percent is still crucial because there is little or no support on charts all the way to 3.00 percent. Thus when we finally do breach that level, mortgage rates may rocket toward 5.00 percent. But not today.Continuing with first things first, the Fed manipulates the “Fed funds” rate, the overnight cost of money. Longer term rates are a market f…

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